Friday, January 17, 2020

An interesting restatement of Maybe Logic


Tyler Cowen (Wikipedia Commons photo)

Tyler Cowen, asked about a blog post explainingwhy he doesn't believe in God:

It struck me at the time that people who believe in a particular God of a particular religion are often reluctant to speak of it in Bayesian terms. Suppose someone said: “Well, I’m a Catholic, I think Catholicism is true with probability 2 percent, but all the other religions are true with probability of 1 percent. So I’m a Catholic, but there’s still a 98 percent chance I’m wrong.” That would actually make perfect sense to me, but I’ve never met a human who feels that way. Belief in religion is usually bundled with high certainty, and that to me doesn’t make sense. 

More interesting opinions here, I agree with sombunall.


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